| ID |
PREDICTION |
DURATION |
PREDICTOR |
|
9 |
By 2020, bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event. More… |
02002 – 02020
(18 years) |
Martin Rees |
|
10 |
The Bet: By 2050, we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system. More… |
02002 – 02050
(48 years) |
Paul Hawken |
|
13 |
By 2007, the U.S. Government will intervene to prevent at least one of the Incumbent Local Exchange Carriers (ILECs)/Regional Bell Operating Companines (RBOCs) (e.g. Verizon, SBC, Bell South, and EXCEPTING Qwest) from filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. More… |
02006 – 02007
(5 years) |
Andy Chapman |
|
14 |
In 2012, 75 percept of all revenue for enterprise software companies will be from subscription fees rather than license fees. More… |
02006 – 02012
(10 years) |
marc s. sokol |
|
70 |
Moore’s Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing. More… |
02002 – 02052
(50 years) |
Sheldon Renan |
|
76 |
By the year 2020 solar electricity will be as cheap or cheaper than that produced by fossil fuels. More… |
02002 – 02020
(18 years) |
Robert A. Freling |
|
77 |
By 2050, at least two pan-regional currencies, modeled on the Euro, will be used in the world. More… |
02002 – 02050
(48 years) |
Christophe Cauvy |
|
78 |
By 2070, at least six countries will have officially implemented a 4-day working week. More… |
02002 – 02070
(68 years) |
Christophe Cauvy |
|
80 |
Evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence within the solar system will be confirmed before evidence from several light-years away. More… |
02006 – ?
(? years) |
Allen Tough |
|
86 |
By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks. More… |
02002 – 02150
(148 years) |
Alex K. Rubin |
|
88 |
Major online internet useage research firms will record that over 3 billion people in 2025 managed their incoming and outgoing digital information using a graphical user interface based on Quadrant Theory – as described in Marshall McLuhan’s “Tetrad” model in Laws of Media, Ken Wilber’s Holon in Sex, Ecology Spirituality, and R Buckminster Fuller’s Tetrahedral structures in Synergetics. More… |
02002 – 02025
(23 years) |
Judah Thornewill |
|
92 |
By 2020 a completely propellantless (no material particles expelled for propulsion) or “field propulsion-type” aerospace vehicle will land on the Moon. More… |
02002 – 02020
(18 years) |
jay c. dillon |
|
97 |
Barring an unexpected decline in human numbers from current levels, biodiversity will not reverse its downward trend, air and water pollution will not reverse their increasing trends,(all according to World Resources Institute data) and the WHO will not report a decrease in the percentage of humans with persistent illnesses. More… |
02003 – 02013
(10 years) |
Steven B. Kurtz |
|
137 |
The Long Bets Foundation will no longer exist in 2104. More… |
02006 – 02104
(101 years) |
Frank Toms |
|
141 |
By 2020, 75% of all incremental new generation will come from renewable/sustainable energy in the U.S. More… |
02004 – 02020
(16 years) |
Jigar Shah |
|
143 |
By the year 2020 the technology will exist that will allow for the “faxing” (teleportation- sending/receiving) of actual inanimate objects, such as text books, clothing, jewelery and the like. More… |
02004 – 02020
(16 years) |
Rob Schnitzer |
|
148 |
By 2006 a single-answer technology other than Google will emerge as the favored answering service and will remain in power for at least two years More… |
02006 – 02006
(2 years) |
John S. Flowers |
|
149 |
US accounting and banking regulations will not require that loan portfolios held in the “banking book” be marked to market before 2024. More… |
02004 – 02024
(20 years) |
Stuart Brannan |
|
163 |
You are immortal More… |
02004 – 02024
(20 years) |
Brendan McAuliffe |
|
164 |
That by 2020 it will be possible and desirable for urban houses to have a room in the house designed for, and dedicated to, producing a household’s entire water supply. This will be achievable through condensation (a terarium effect) and using solar panel roof tiles to generate the energy to produce, purify and filter the water. More… |
02004 – 02020
(16 years) |
Michael F. Olliffe |
|
165 |
By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE. More… |
02004 – 02040
(36 years) |
Datong Assoc |
|
168 |
By 2050 most geologists will agree that most of earth’s oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants. More… |
02004 – 02050
(46 years) |
Danny Hillis |
|
172 |
A machine capable of passing the Turing Test will be made in 2075 using only hardware that was available in 2005. More… |
02004 – 02075
(71 years) |
Kevin Kelly |
|
173 |
The concept of time as a linear dimension will be replaced by one of time as a polarity between content and context. More… |
02006 – 02025
(21 years) |
John B. Merryman |
|
181 |
I predict that my projections for methane atmospheric concentrations, industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and atmospheric concentrations, and resultant lower tropospheric temperatures will be more accurate than those found in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Third Assessment Report (TAR).
The following are my (MB) projections and the IPCC TAR projections for methane atmospheric concentrations (in ppb, worth 1 point), industrial CO2 emissions (in Gigatons as carbon, worth 1 point), CO2 atmospheric concentrations (in ppm, worth 1 point) and lower tropospheric temperature increases (in degrees Celsius relative to 1990, worth 3 points). The projections are for the years 2030, 2070, and 2100.
2030, MB: 1790, 8.8, 425, 0.36
2030, IPCC: 2060, 13.2, 438, 0.80
2070, MB: 1825, 7.0, 527, 0.82
2070, IPCC: 2300, 16.4, 610, 2.17
2100, MB: 1840, 4.0, 558, 1.20
2100, IPCC: 2450, 16.4, 720, 3.06
Lower tropospheric temperatures are as measured by satellite, in a 3-year average around the year in question (e.g. 2030 would be 2029, 2030, 20310. This bet is only open to members of the IPCC. More… |
02005 – 02101
(96 years) |
Mark A. Bahner |
|
194 |
The world per-capita GDP in the year 2000 was approximately $7,200. The world per-capita GDP (in year 2000 dollars) will exceed $13,000 in the year 2020, $31,000 in 2040, $130,000 in 2060, $1,000,000 in 2080, and $10,000,000 in 2100. More… |
02005 – 02100
(95 years) |
Mark A. Bahner |
|
195 |
A March 2004 article stated: “More than 3.5 billion years after nature transformed non-living matter into living things, populating Earth with a cornucopia of animals and plants, scientists say they are finally ready to try their hand at creating life. . . It is a dream long pursued by scientists who now believe that it may be possible to create the first artificial unit of life in the next 5 to 10 years.” See: http://www.deeperwants.com/cul1/homeworlds/journal/archives/002191.html
My prediction is that artificial life; i.e., life from non-life, will not be created in a laboratory. More… |
02005 – 02020
(15 years) |
Rodney T. Small |
|
196 |
I predict that global warming denialists such as MIT professor Richard Lindzen will be shown to be wrong over the next 20 years as global warming continues. Specifically, I believe the scientific consensus that temperatures are likely to increase by .3 degrees Celsius over the next 20 is more accurate than the Lindzen/denialist position that temperatures are as likely to decrease as increase. Choosing a prediction that is halfway between the consensus and the denialist viewpoints, I predict that temperatures will increase by at least .15 degrees Celsius from 2005 to 2025. This bet is open to anyone who wants to accept it. More… |
02006 – 02025
(20 years) |
Brian A. Schmidt |
|
197 |
The U.S Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov) will report a lower number of total highway vehicle miles traveled in 2010 than in 2005. More… |
02005 – 02010
(5 years) |
Daniel K. Simon |
|
200 |
Within 5 years all power plants will be converted to full-spectrum laser-fired—all oil/gas/coal/nuclear power plants will be obsolete and retired. More… |
02005 – 02010
(5 years) |
Carla Hein |
|
204 |
In 2009, WinFX will be the dominant API for application development on all major PC platforms. More… |
02005 – 02007
(2 years) |
Carl K. Lumma |
|
205 |
Google will face antitrust proceedings from the DOJ or a challenge to a merger or acquisition by the FTC. More… |
02005 – 02009
(4 years) |
Rudy Rouhana |
|
207 |
By 2150 faster than light propulsion theory will become realized, but not implemented, either through black holes, worm holes or space time warping. More… |
02005 – 02150
(145 years) |
Gary G. Cassel |
|
208 |
The International Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report will conclude it is likely, or more than likely, that human-caused global warming has increased hurricane intensity in the 1995-2005 time period. More… |
02005 – 20015
(18010 years) |
Brian A. Schmidt |
|
211 |
If the next president of the USA will be a democrat and/or a female, the US’s anual GPD growth, major Wall Street share indices (Dow Jones, NASDAQ comp.) by the end of the term in 2012 will be higher, unemployment rate lower than now. The death toll of US soldiers in foreign countries and the numbers of terror attacks in western countries will be lower. More… |
02005 – 02012
(7 years) |
Daniel M. Wigger |
|
217 |
Within the next 5 years, Google employees will become dissatisfied, and kick-start a new wave of new technology and prosperity in Silicon Valley. More… |
02005 – 02010
(5 years) |
Juli Mallett |
|
218 |
I predict that we will be in a full fledged ice age by 2100. I predict that before that we will see volcanic activity that produces more CO2, irridium, and CH4 than mankind could imagine. We will have massive increases in snowfall and sea level first, followed by falling sea levels as the glaciers increase. More… |
02005 – 02020
(15 years) |
james w. walter |
|
219 |
I predict that this year will have the greatest snowfall on record, worldwide More… |
02005 – 02008
(3 years) |
james w. walter |
|
223 |
By 2015, standardized tests for high school students in every state of the United States will directly evaluate students’ understanding of the differences between scientific laws, scientific theories and the kinds of things often called theories outside the scientific community. More… |
02005 – 02015
(10 years) |
Kathleen A. Hansen |
|
225 |
Many types of cancer will be treated effectively with biofeedback coupled with imaging techniques, such as fMRI. More… |
02005 – 02013
(8 years) |
Hugh B. Grant |
|
226 |
By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G’s) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world’s GDP. More… |
02006 – 02024
(18 years) |
morrison m. bonpasse |
|
239 |
By 2040, at least 40% of Americans making to age 65 will live to age 100. More… |
02006 – 02040
(34 years) |
Elna R. Tymes |
|
241 |
The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs. More… |
02006 – 02029
(23 years) |
Mike Treder |