15 March 2003 by Ron
Just a little rant of mine written a little while ago:
Gallup’s lie about religion and age
As you may or may not know, the Gallup polling organization is an organization with a pretty ass-backward conservative bias. Sometimes it doesn’t matter — but sometimes it does…
In their "special analysis" of poll data collected from 1992 to 1999 (reprinted here), the folks at Gallup tell us that the analysis "highlights the general sociological finding that religious involvement and behavior increase in later stages of life." And there are a variety of ways in which the age of people in the mid 90’s, when the polls were taken correlate with a greater degree of religious belief and observance: Those who say religion is very important in their daily lives goes from 45% among those 18-29, to 77% for those 75 and older. Similarly, the numbers who say they belong to a church or synagogue go from 61% among the young to 75% among the old; and those reporting weekly church or synagogue attendance go from 23% among the young to 46% among the old.
Of course, these numbers tell us absolutely nothing about whether religious involvement increases later in life. If they had tracked particular people and seen that their level of religious involvement increased on average between the time they were 25, say (in 1945) and the time they were 75 (in 1995), then such a conclusion might well be supported (at least for that generation). But all that’s shown by the numbers they give is that people who were 75 in 1995 (and so 25 in 1945) have, in 1995, a greater level of religious involvement on average than people who were 25 in 1995. That is, they show that people who grew up in an earlier time (e.g. in the 1930’s-40’s) are more religiously observant than those who grew up in a later time (e.g. the 1980’s-90’s). It tells us nothing at all about whether either of those groups has changed (or is likely to change) with age.
Of course, other data we do have reinforce this: According to Gallup’s own figures, the percentage of adults claiming the religion is "very important in their daily lives" was 57% in 2001, but 70% in 1965 and 75% in 1952.
So, are they intentionally lying, or just making a mistake? You might have thought it was their business not to make such a dumb mistake, and that pushes me toward the lying interpretation. But who knows; you make the call.
